Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Timmy Cuamba
Lucas Almeida
60%
40%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
10-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
15-6
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cuamba: 59 sig / 2 TD ·
Almeida: 70 sig / 0 TD
Timmy Cuamba
Lucas Almeida
35
Sig strikes landed
40
80
Sig strikes attempted
79
53
Total strikes landed
60
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
116s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Timmy Cuamba
"Twilight"
10-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Lucas Almeida
15-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—