Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jeka Saragih
Westin Wilson
72%
28%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
30
Age
Δ 6y
35
15-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
17-11
W1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Saragih: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Wilson: 0 sig / 1 TD
Jeka Saragih
Westin Wilson
30
Sig strikes landed
21
54
Sig strikes attempted
53
42
Total strikes landed
29
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
87s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jeka Saragih
15-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
L2
Westin Wilson
17-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—