Prelims1
Featherweight
Melquizael Costa vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Melquizael Costa
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
34%
66%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
26-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
39-13
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Costa: 16 sig / 2 TD ·
Nuerdanbieke: 6 sig / 4 TD
Melquizael Costa
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
32
Sig strikes landed
28
64
Sig strikes attempted
72
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.7
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
102s
Control time
221s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Melquizael Costa
"The Dalmatian"
26-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
L1
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
"Wolverine"
39-13
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—