Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Casey O'Neill vs Luana Santos
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
·RAC Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Casey O'Neill
Luana Santos
58%
42%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
27
Age
Δ 3y
24
11-3
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-2
L2
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
O'Neill: 83 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 41 sig / 1 TD
Casey O'Neill
Luana Santos
63
Sig strikes landed
62
108
Sig strikes attempted
115
69
Total strikes landed
87
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
138s
Control time
176s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Casey O'Neill
"King"
11-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
Blue corner
W3
Luana Santos
11-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—