Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jack Jenkins
Herbert Burns
72%
28%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
31
Age
Δ 6y
36
14-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
11-7
L1
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Jenkins: 73 sig / 0 TD ·
Burns: 24 sig / 2 TD
Jack Jenkins
Herbert Burns
36
Sig strikes landed
28
63
Sig strikes attempted
73
59
Total strikes landed
43
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
122s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jack Jenkins
"Phar"
14-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
L3
Herbert Burns
"The Blaze"
11-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—