Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tom Nolan
Alex Reyes
77%
23%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
24
Age
Δ 14y
38
11-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
13-6
W1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nolan: 84 sig / 0 TD ·
Reyes: 69 sig / 2 TD
Tom Nolan
Alex Reyes
37
Sig strikes landed
39
62
Sig strikes attempted
56
40
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
130s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
11-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
Blue corner
L2
Alex Reyes
"The Executioner"
13-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—