Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Li Jingliang
Carlos Prates
27%
73%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
19-10
Career record
Δ 13 pp
25-7
L1
Current streak
W2
17
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Jingliang: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Prates: 55 sig / 0 TD
Li Jingliang
Carlos Prates
46
Sig strikes landed
54
104
Sig strikes attempted
120
44
Total strikes landed
58
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
50s
Control time
29s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Li Jingliang
"The Leech"
19-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
L
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
Blue corner
W2
Carlos Prates
"The Nightmare"
25-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—