Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Junior Tafa
Valter Walker
21%
79%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
7-6
Career record
Δ 34 pp
15-2
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tafa: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Walker: 4 sig / 2 TD
Junior Tafa
Valter Walker
22
Sig strikes landed
34
44
Sig strikes attempted
59
50
Total strikes landed
73
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.4
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
53s
Control time
296s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Junior Tafa
"The Juggernaut"
7-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Valter Walker
"The Clean Monster"
15-2
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—