Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mateusz Gamrot
Dan Hooker
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
34
Age
Δ 1y
34
27-4
Career record
Δ 23 pp
25-14
W3
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gamrot: 64 sig / 5 TD ·
Hooker: 65 sig / 0 TD
Mateusz Gamrot
Dan Hooker
49
Sig strikes landed
48
97
Sig strikes attempted
98
65
Total strikes landed
70
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.4
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
225s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
27-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
Blue corner
W2
Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
25-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
21 fights · 13-8
Last 5
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—