Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kai Kara-France
Steve Erceg
61%
39%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
25-13
Career record
Δ 8 pp
14-5
L2
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kara-France: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Erceg: 9 sig / 0 TD
Kai Kara-France
Steve Erceg
63
Sig strikes landed
65
151
Sig strikes attempted
142
83
Total strikes landed
76
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
98s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
25-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
L1
Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
14-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—