🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
·RAC Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dricus Du Plessis
Israel Adesanya
77%
23%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
24-3
Career record
Δ 11 pp
24-7
W7
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Du Plessis: 90 sig / 4 TD ·
Adesanya: 97 sig / 0 TD
Dricus Du Plessis
Israel Adesanya
89
Sig strikes landed
72
173
Sig strikes attempted
159
118
Total strikes landed
91
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
157s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Dricus Du Plessis
"Stillknocks"
24-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
Blue corner
L1
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
24-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 13-3
Last 5
L
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—