Main
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Gregory Rodrigues
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
·Co-op Live
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Christian Leroy Duncan
Gregory Rodrigues
62%
38%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
15-2
Career record
Δ 11 pp
20-6
W2
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Duncan: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Rodrigues: 45 sig / 4 TD
Christian Leroy Duncan
Gregory Rodrigues
47
Sig strikes landed
58
102
Sig strikes attempted
118
60
Total strikes landed
66
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
107s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Christian Leroy Duncan
"CLD"
15-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
W2
Gregory Rodrigues
"Robocop"
20-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—