Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Arnold Allen
Giga Chikadze
80%
20%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
30
Age
Δ 5y
36
21-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
16-6
L2
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Allen: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Chikadze: 38 sig / 0 TD
Arnold Allen
Giga Chikadze
58
Sig strikes landed
61
135
Sig strikes attempted
144
73
Total strikes landed
68
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.6
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
12s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
21-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
L
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
W1
Giga Chikadze
"Ninja"
16-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—