Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
King Green
Paddy Pimblett
40%
60%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
38
Age
Δ 8y
30
36-17-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
24-4
W1
Current streak
W5
25
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Green: 15 sig / 1 TD ·
Pimblett: 8 sig / 0 TD
King Green
Paddy Pimblett
52
Sig strikes landed
65
110
Sig strikes attempted
146
57
Total strikes landed
85
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
57s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
King Green
36-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
25 fights · 13-10
Last 5
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
Blue corner
W5
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
24-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—