Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Patterson
Kiefer Crosbie
79%
21%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 8"
70"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
15-3-1
Career record
Δ 20 pp
10-7
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Patterson: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Crosbie: 9 sig / 0 TD
Sam Patterson
Kiefer Crosbie
30
Sig strikes landed
23
74
Sig strikes attempted
33
55
Total strikes landed
34
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
147s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sam Patterson
15-3-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
L1
Kiefer Crosbie
"BDK"
10-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—