Prelims2
Light Heavyweight
Modestas Bukauskas vs Marcin Prachnio
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
·Co-op Live
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Modestas Bukauskas
Marcin Prachnio
72%
28%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
20-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-9
L1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Bukauskas: 38 sig / 2 TD ·
Prachnio: 70 sig / 0 TD
Modestas Bukauskas
Marcin Prachnio
39
Sig strikes landed
42
97
Sig strikes attempted
90
47
Total strikes landed
56
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
76s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
20-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
W1
Marcin Prachnio
18-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—