Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mick Parkin
Lukasz Brzeski
79%
21%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
11-1
Career record
Δ 36 pp
10-7-1
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Parkin: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Brzeski: 24 sig / 0 TD
Mick Parkin
Lukasz Brzeski
64
Sig strikes landed
47
130
Sig strikes attempted
112
84
Total strikes landed
55
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
183s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Mick Parkin
11-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
Blue corner
W1
Lukasz Brzeski
"The Bull"
10-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—