Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Oban Elliott
Preston Parsons
73%
27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
13-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
12-6
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elliott: 44 sig / 1 TD ·
Parsons: 36 sig / 1 TD
Oban Elliott
Preston Parsons
50
Sig strikes landed
47
95
Sig strikes attempted
99
78
Total strikes landed
62
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.8
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
228s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Oban Elliott
"The Welsh Gangster"
13-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
Blue corner
W1
Preston Parsons
"Pressure"
12-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—