Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Muhammad Mokaev
Manel Kape
66%
34%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
24
Age
Δ 7y
31
14-0
Career record
Δ 23 pp
23-7
W6
Current streak
W4
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mokaev: 30 sig / 3 TD ·
Kape: 20 sig / 0 TD
Muhammad Mokaev
Manel Kape
40
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
52
94
Total strikes landed
49
3.5
Takedowns landed
-0.1
8.2
Takedowns attempted
-0.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
458s
Control time
28s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
51%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Muhammad Mokaev
"The Punisher"
14-0
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
Blue corner
W4
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
23-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—