Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nathaniel Wood
Daniel Pineda
81%
19%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
31
Age
Δ 8y
39
23-7
Career record
Δ 16 pp
28-18
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wood: 66 sig / 0 TD ·
Pineda: 32 sig / 1 TD
Nathaniel Wood
Daniel Pineda
56
Sig strikes landed
38
101
Sig strikes attempted
89
81
Total strikes landed
49
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
154s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nathaniel Wood
"The Last Kingsman"
23-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
L1
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
28-18
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
12 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—