🏆 Title fight
Main
Heavyweight
Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
·Co-op Live
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tom Aspinall
Curtis Blaydes
60%
40%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
80"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
16-3
Career record
Δ 7 pp
20-6
W2
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aspinall: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Blaydes: 5 sig / 0 TD
Tom Aspinall
Curtis Blaydes
35
Sig strikes landed
14
50
Sig strikes attempted
33
50
Total strikes landed
39
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.4
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
75s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tom Aspinall
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
Blue corner
W1
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
18 fights · 13-4
Last 5
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—