🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
·Co-op Live
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Belal Muhammad
59%
41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 3y
36
23-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
25-5
W8
Current streak
W8
17
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Edwards: 47 sig / 2 TD ·
Muhammad: 68 sig / 9 TD
Leon Edwards
Belal Muhammad
76
Sig strikes landed
64
166
Sig strikes attempted
132
97
Total strikes landed
95
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
4.3
Takedowns attempted
7.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
127s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
17 fights · 14-2
Last 5
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W8
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
18 fights · 14-3
Last 5
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—