Prelims1
Bantamweight
John Castaneda vs Daniel Marcos
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov
·KFC Yum! Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
John Castaneda
Daniel Marcos
46%
54%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
22-8-1
Career record
Δ 24 pp
18-1
W2
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Castaneda: 60 sig / 1 TD ·
Marcos: 98 sig / 0 TD
John Castaneda
Daniel Marcos
56
Sig strikes landed
57
138
Sig strikes attempted
132
69
Total strikes landed
70
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
53s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
22-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
Blue corner
W2
Daniel Marcos
"Soncora"
18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—