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Dominick Reyes vs Dustin Jacoby

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov ·KFC Yum! Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Dominick Reyes
Dustin Jacoby
54% 46%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
16-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
22-10-1
L4
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Reyes: 20 sig / 0 TD · Jacoby: 6 sig / 0 TD
Dominick Reyes
Dustin Jacoby
60
Sig strikes landed
61
133
Sig strikes attempted
124
61
Total strikes landed
76
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
38s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L4

Dominick Reyes

"The Devastator"
16-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
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L UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
L UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
Blue corner
L1

Dustin Jacoby

"The Hanyak"
22-10-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 13 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—