Back to UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Brad Katona vs Jesse Butler

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov ·KFC Yum! Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Brad Katona
Jesse Butler
73% 27%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 8"
73"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
16-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
12-7
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Katona: 68 sig / 3 TD · Butler: 30 sig / 0 TD
Brad Katona
Jesse Butler
44
Sig strikes landed
51
101
Sig strikes attempted
138
79
Total strikes landed
64
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.8
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
239s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Brad Katona

"Superman"
16-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
Blue corner
L1

Jesse Butler

12-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—