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Main Bantamweight

KyuSung Kim vs Tokitaka Nakanishi

Road to UFC 3.3 + 3.4 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
KyuSung Kim
Tokitaka Nakanishi
48% 52%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kim: 23 sig / 0 TD · Nakanishi: 13 sig / 4 TD
KyuSung Kim
Tokitaka Nakanishi
37
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
70
50
Total strikes landed
55
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
119s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

KyuSung Kim

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner

Tokitaka Nakanishi

"Toky"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28