Main
Middleweight
Kevin Holland vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Michal Oleksiejczuk
60%
40%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 7"
74"
32
Age
Δ 2y
29
29-16
Career record
Δ 4 pp
22-10
L2
Current streak
L1
21
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Holland: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Oleksiejczuk: 8 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Holland
Michal Oleksiejczuk
49
Sig strikes landed
48
99
Sig strikes attempted
82
64
Total strikes landed
54
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
55s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
21 fights · 12-8
Last 5
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
Blue corner
L1
Michal Oleksiejczuk
"Hussar"
22-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
13 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—