Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean Strickland
Paulo Costa
83%
17%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
31-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-5
L1
Current streak
L1
21
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Strickland: 182 sig / 0 TD ·
Costa: 158 sig / 0 TD
Sean Strickland
Paulo Costa
106
Sig strikes landed
91
209
Sig strikes attempted
187
100
Total strikes landed
96
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
64s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sean Strickland
31-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
21 fights · 15-6
Last 5
L
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
16-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—