Prelims1
Heavyweight
Jailton Almeida vs Alexandr Romanov
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jailton Almeida
Alexandr Romanov
67%
33%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
22-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-3
L1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Almeida: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Romanov: 1 sig / 0 TD
Jailton Almeida
Alexandr Romanov
21
Sig strikes landed
20
43
Sig strikes attempted
34
45
Total strikes landed
49
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
269s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jailton Almeida
"Malhadinho"
22-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
Blue corner
W1
Alexandr Romanov
"King Kong"
19-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—