Prelims1
Middleweight
Cesar Almeida vs Roman Kopylov
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cesar Almeida
Roman Kopylov
36%
64%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
8-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
15-6
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Almeida: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Kopylov: 41 sig / 5 TD
Cesar Almeida
Roman Kopylov
31
Sig strikes landed
41
62
Sig strikes attempted
69
24
Total strikes landed
44
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
13s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
74%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cesar Almeida
"Cesinha"
8-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
Blue corner
L1
Roman Kopylov
15-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—