Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Grant Dawson
Joe Solecki
85%
15%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 0y
31
24-4-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
13-7
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dawson: 46 sig / 3 TD ·
Solecki: 12 sig / 0 TD
Grant Dawson
Joe Solecki
36
Sig strikes landed
18
68
Sig strikes attempted
39
73
Total strikes landed
39
2.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
6.2
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
320s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
24-4-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 8-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
Blue corner
L1
Joe Solecki
13-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—