🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Dustin Poirier
83%
17%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 3y
35
29-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
31-10
W8
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 5
Makhachev: 88 sig / 5 TD ·
Poirier: 74 sig / 0 TD
Islam Makhachev
Dustin Poirier
64
Sig strikes landed
32
81
Sig strikes attempted
93
88
Total strikes landed
41
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.0
5.5
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
336s
Control time
22s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
15 fights · 14-1
Last 5
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
Blue corner
W1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
30 fights · 22-7
Last 5
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—