Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Phil Rowe
Jake Matthews
31%
69%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 8"
73"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
11-8
Career record
Δ 14 pp
23-9
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rowe: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Matthews: 66 sig / 1 TD
Phil Rowe
Jake Matthews
39
Sig strikes landed
48
83
Sig strikes attempted
83
55
Total strikes landed
68
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
84s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Phil Rowe
"The Fresh Prince"
11-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
L
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
Blue corner
L1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
23-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
19 fights · 12-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—