Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Oumar Sy
Tuco Tokkos
78%
22%
Why
83"
Reach
Δ 7"
76"
28
Age
Δ 5y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sy: 0 sig / 2 TD ·
Tokkos: 3 sig / 0 TD
Oumar Sy
Tuco Tokkos
38
Sig strikes landed
33
78
Sig strikes attempted
71
58
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Oumar Sy
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Tuco Tokkos
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34