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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Tamires Vidal vs Melissa Gatto

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Tamires Vidal
Melissa Gatto
51% 49%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
7-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
9-4-2
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Vidal: 15 sig / 0 TD · Gatto: 30 sig / 2 TD
Tamires Vidal
Melissa Gatto
42
Sig strikes landed
44
90
Sig strikes attempted
85
66
Total strikes landed
65
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
118s
Control time
192s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
31%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Tamires Vidal

"Tractor"
7-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L2

Melissa Gatto

9-4-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—