Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Victor Martinez
Tom Nolan
36%
64%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
33
Age
Δ 9y
24
13-8
Career record
Δ 21 pp
10-2
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Martinez: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Nolan: 33 sig / 0 TD
Victor Martinez
Tom Nolan
22
Sig strikes landed
37
47
Sig strikes attempted
72
45
Total strikes landed
43
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.50
185s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Victor Martinez
"The Brick"
13-8
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
Blue corner
L1
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
10-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—