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Prelims1 Middleweight

Abus Magomedov vs Warlley Alves

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Abus Magomedov
Warlley Alves
85% 15%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
34
Age
Δ 0y
33
28-8-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
15-9
L2
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
15

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Magomedov: 22 sig / 6 TD · Alves: 16 sig / 0 TD
Abus Magomedov
Warlley Alves
45
Sig strikes landed
32
88
Sig strikes attempted
60
66
Total strikes landed
49
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
56s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Abus Magomedov

28-8-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
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L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
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Blue corner
L3

Warlley Alves

15-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
L UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
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L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
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W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
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L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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