Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Piera Rodriguez vs Ariane Carnelossi
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Piera Rodriguez
Ariane Carnelossi
51%
49%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
62"
32
Age
32
12-3
Career record
Δ 5 pp
15-5
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
DQ · Round 2
Rodriguez: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Carnelossi: 16 sig / 0 TD
Piera Rodriguez
Ariane Carnelossi
47
Sig strikes landed
36
94
Sig strikes attempted
83
70
Total strikes landed
61
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
118s
Control time
214s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Piera Rodriguez
"La Fiera"
12-3
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
Blue corner
L1
Ariane Carnelossi
"Sorriso"
15-5
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—