Main
Middleweight
Shara Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Shara Magomedov
Michal Oleksiejczuk
65%
35%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
17-1
Career record
Δ 26 pp
22-10
W2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Magomedov: 97 sig / 0 TD ·
Oleksiejczuk: 77 sig / 3 TD
Shara Magomedov
Michal Oleksiejczuk
68
Sig strikes landed
47
121
Sig strikes attempted
127
61
Total strikes landed
48
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
77s
Control time
20s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
78%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Shara Magomedov
"Bullet"
17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
L2
Michal Oleksiejczuk
"Hussar"
22-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
14 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—