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Mohammad Yahya vs Kaue Fernandes

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Mohammad Yahya
Kaue Fernandes
47% 53%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
12-7
Career record
Δ 15 pp
11-3
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Yahya: 4 sig / 0 TD · Fernandes: 37 sig / 0 TD
Mohammad Yahya
Kaue Fernandes
36
Sig strikes landed
34
65
Sig strikes attempted
72
49
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
96s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Mohammad Yahya

"The UAE Warrior"
12-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
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Blue corner
L1

Kaue Fernandes

11-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
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