Prelims1
Heavyweight
Shamil Gaziev vs Don'Tale Mayes
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shamil Gaziev
Don'Tale Mayes
74%
26%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
81"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
14-4
Career record
Δ 21 pp
12-9
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gaziev: 31 sig / 2 TD ·
Mayes: 27 sig / 0 TD
Shamil Gaziev
Don'Tale Mayes
38
Sig strikes landed
41
84
Sig strikes attempted
97
60
Total strikes landed
54
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
207s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Shamil Gaziev
14-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
W1
Don'Tale Mayes
"Lord Kong"
12-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—