Main
Lightweight
Joel Alvarez vs Elves Brener
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joel Alvarez
Elves Brener
71%
29%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
24-4
Career record
Δ 16 pp
16-7
W1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Alvarez: 95 sig / 0 TD ·
Brener: 45 sig / 0 TD
Joel Alvarez
Elves Brener
39
Sig strikes landed
41
89
Sig strikes attempted
81
49
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
107s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
24-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Elves Brener
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—