Back to UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Main Women's Strawweight

Mackenzie Dern vs Loopy Godinez

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Mackenzie Dern
Loopy Godinez
63% 37%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
61"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
16-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
14-7
L2
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dern: 72 sig / 2 TD · Godinez: 67 sig / 2 TD
Mackenzie Dern
Loopy Godinez
58
Sig strikes landed
61
141
Sig strikes attempted
130
92
Total strikes landed
84
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.1
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
190s
Control time
176s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Mackenzie Dern

16-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
Blue corner
L1

Loopy Godinez

14-7
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—