Back to UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Main Welterweight

Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Michael Chiesa
55% 45%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
40
Age
Δ 4y
37
26-12
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-8
L7
Current streak
L3
23
UFC fights in our DB
18

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ferguson: 10 sig / 0 TD · Chiesa: 4 sig / 1 TD
Tony Ferguson
Michael Chiesa
47
Sig strikes landed
39
103
Sig strikes attempted
92
66
Total strikes landed
68
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.1
0.2
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
33s
Control time
254s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L7

Tony Ferguson

"El Cucuy"
26-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database 23 fights · 15-8
Last 5
L UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
L UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
Blue corner
L3

Michael Chiesa

"Maverick"
20-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database 18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
L UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
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W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
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