Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dan Ige
Diego Lopes
27%
73%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
20-11
Career record
Δ 13 pp
28-8
W1
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ige: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Lopes: 49 sig / 1 TD
Dan Ige
Diego Lopes
30
Sig strikes landed
35
54
Sig strikes attempted
74
41
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
84s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dan Ige
"100K"
20-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
Blue corner
W3
Diego Lopes
28-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—