🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Pereira
Jiri Prochazka
17%
83%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
14-3
Career record
Δ 0 pp
33-6-1
W3
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Pereira: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Prochazka: 7 sig / 0 TD
Alex Pereira
Jiri Prochazka
55
Sig strikes landed
50
110
Sig strikes attempted
118
69
Total strikes landed
72
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
38s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
14-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
Blue corner
W1
Jiri Prochazka
33-6-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—