Back to UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
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Anthony Smith vs Roman Dolidze

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Anthony Smith
Roman Dolidze
67% 33%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
36
Age
Δ 0y
36
39-22
Career record
Δ 7 pp
15-6
W1
Current streak
L2
22
UFC fights in our DB
9

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smith: 51 sig / 0 TD · Dolidze: 100 sig / 1 TD
Anthony Smith
Roman Dolidze
43
Sig strikes landed
38
78
Sig strikes attempted
81
52
Total strikes landed
58
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.7
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
13s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Anthony Smith

"Lionheart"
39-22
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 22 fights · 13-9
Last 5
W UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
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L UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
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W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
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L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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L UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
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Blue corner
L2

Roman Dolidze

15-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
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L UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
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W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
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W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
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W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
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