Back to UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Prelims2 Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski vs Martin Buday

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Martin Buday
23% 77%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
45
Age
Δ 13y
33
34-25
Career record
Δ 27 pp
16-3
L3
Current streak
L1
27
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Arlovski: 74 sig / 0 TD · Buday: 54 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Martin Buday
48
Sig strikes landed
62
107
Sig strikes attempted
125
59
Total strikes landed
84
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
49s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Andrei Arlovski

"The Pitbull"
34-25 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
45
In our database 27 fights · 13-13
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
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L UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
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L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
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W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
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W UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
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Blue corner
L1

Martin Buday

"Badys"
16-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
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W UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
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W UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
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W UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
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