Back to UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Prelims2 Women's Strawweight

Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs Gillian Robertson

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Gillian Robertson
27% 73%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 1"
63"
38
Age
Δ 9y
29
18-14
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-8
L4
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Waterson-Gomez: 21 sig / 1 TD · Robertson: 77 sig / 2 TD
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Gillian Robertson
50
Sig strikes landed
56
91
Sig strikes attempted
113
72
Total strikes landed
91
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
121s
Control time
235s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
33%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L4

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

"The Karate Hottie"
18-14
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 14 fights · 6-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
L UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
L UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
Blue corner
W1

Gillian Robertson

"The Savage"
18-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
L UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…