Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rei Tsuruya
Carlos Hernandez
78%
22%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
22
Age
Δ 9y
31
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tsuruya: 17 sig / 3 TD ·
Hernandez: 16 sig / 1 TD
Rei Tsuruya
Carlos Hernandez
43
Sig strikes landed
45
96
Sig strikes attempted
86
63
Total strikes landed
58
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
181s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rei Tsuruya
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner
L1
Carlos Hernandez
10-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
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L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
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